To date, there are still more installed PCs
in the world than there are smartphones or tablets. Next year, that's likely to
change.
According to projections from mobile
analyst Ben Evans, the number of smartphones in use around the world will pass
that of PCs for the first time next year. According to a chart from Evans, the
estimate of installed PCs in the world is a little north of 1.6 billion. The
global install base of smartphones is near 1.3 billion and growing at a much
faster clip than PCs. If you add tablets into the equation (with a tick more
than 200 million installed across the world) then mobile devices are almost on
par with PCs already.
Evans predicts that the total number of
installed smartphones in the world will eclipse PCs in 2014 sometime in the
second quarter.
Evans notes that the numbers are appropriately
approximate because firm numbers of devices "installed"—meaning
purchased, activated and used—by global consumers is difficult to pinpoint with
a high degree of accuracy.
The broad stroke numbers are very easy to
see. IDC predicts that 314.2 million PCs (desktop and laptop/notebook) will be
shipped in 2013, down from 349.4 in 2012. That is a 10.1% shortfall
year-over-year, the biggest single year drop in PC history.
On the other end, smartphones are predicted
to eclipse one billion shipments this year. IDC shows smartphone shipment
growth of 39.3% year-over-year with little sign of slowing down.
See also: Dropping Prices Are Driving Mass
Smartphone Adoption Across The World
IDC predicts that 1.7 billion smartphones
will ship in 2017, versus estimated PC shipments of 305.1 million. Shipments,
of course, don't equal sales of actual devices to consumers. It is also
important to note that even sales do not mean an addition to the installed
base, as many as older models are replaced by newer ones. In aggregate, the
install base rises over time—just not at the rate of shipments or sales.
The Power Of Ubiquitous Computing
The era of ubiquitous computing is upon us.
Smartphones and tablets are devices that are always connected, always with us.
The adoption curve of mobile devices has been astonishing in the last several
years, fueled by Western consumers rushing to buy the latest and greatest
smartphones. Now smartphone and tablet prices are dropping around the world,
leading to a billion smartphone shipments this year.
Over the last several years, “mobile
shopping” has become a big buzz term around the holidays. IBM has tracked the
data for Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday for the last several years and notes
that 25.8% of sales were made from a smartphone or tablet on the American
holiday. On Black Friday, 21.8% of sales were through smartphones or tablets.
Essentially, between one out of every four and five online sales on the biggest
shopping day of the year were made by mobile devices. People have their tablets
and smartphones close at hand and look online for deals.
At some point this ceases to be a “mobile”
phenomenon. Instead of “mobile shopping,” it is just “shopping” … through
whatever computer happens to be close at hand. That is the power of ubiquitous
computing.
As smartphones overtake PCs globally, the
notion that anything is seen as a mobile trend ceases to be important. Instead
we are just all connected wherever we go by the a powerful computers in our
pockets.
summary; In 2014, smartphones will most likely eclipse PCs in terms of the number of devices in use around the world.
